Number Prediction at Online Casino Roulette
Is it possible to predict the winning numbers at roulette? Many gamblers claim there are a few ways to do that. Most of them are based on experience in a live game, yet they can’t help you with online casino gaming.
So how does prediction work at the roulette table? Is there a sure way to know what the next number the ball will land on is? Is there a formula or an algorithm to help you predict that? Do you have to be a professional mathematician to figure it out? Do you have to know physics? Does the prediction system change depending on your bet?
Those are some of the questions you might face once you decide to include prediction in your gameplay. Let’s see what the answers are.
Predicting Numbers in Land-Based Casinos
All of the prediction methods have one objective in common — to overthrow the house edge, which is 2.7% in European and 5.26% in American roulette. The predictions include paying close attention to your dealer as well as wheel physics and the computer prognosis.
Let’s inquire about each of those.
A regular casino visitor with a sharp eye might detect that some croupiers will hit specific numbers more frequently. Now, that is a problematic conclusion. The truth is that no dealer can strike the same number time after time. Actually, the odds of that occurring are quite low.
However, predicting by following the way the croupier drops the ball on the wheel can work for specific sections. That means that, although you cannot predict a particular number the ball will land on, you can anticipate which part of the wheel it is most likely to end up on.
But even that is a stretch. In theory, it could work, yet the reality begs to disagree. The method is known as “sector slicing” was possible in the early ’90s. Yet, most of the croupiers find it nearly impossible to do. The wheel is designed in a way that you just cannot navigate the ball. Furthermore, the pockets are too shallow, so the ball probably won’t stay on the number it first strikes.
Is It Possible a Croupier Is Not Aware of Their Trademark?
The croupier might not be aware that their actions are affecting the game outcome. Most of them have a particular routine of dropping the ball. It differentiates in the speed and the way they do it. That is something they’ll do without active thinking. It is a part of their muscle memory.
Here is the deal; the croupier will take a ball from the pocket it last struck. They’ll bring it up to the top of the wheel and drop it. You can be assured that the ball will not land on the number croupier picked it from. It might fall, for instance, between 8 or 12 numbers from the last number it struck. The strike may be less or more than this, but you realize the croupier’s actions are predictable.
Nonetheless, observing such a croupier won’t help you anticipate the exact number they’ll hit. This method can tell you how far from the last strike the ball will fall. It enables you to get some control over the outcome, but not complete.
Also, you should be reminded of the possibility of the ball hitting the bumpers while descending. If that happens, the ball will bounce, and the outcome will be random. Is it probable that this method will work? Theoretically — yes, but it is highly unlikely. If you think it’s a good idea, try it. But if there is no such thing as a croupier’s trademark, you’ll be playing a game of chance — one you would be playing anyway. After all, you have nothing to lose except for your bet.
Prediction Based on Visual Analysis
Another popular technique based on perception includes the analysis of the ball spin and its connection to the spinning of the wheel. It was the method that had its moment of glory in the ’90s, but since then, its usage dropped.
Applying the visual predictions created headaches and nausea for many gamblers, and they gave it up. To do this, you would need to comprehend the ball speed as it sinks into the pockets. Take notice that the initial velocity is irrelevant because most of the balls fall at the same acceleration as the physics of friction and moving objects take control.
For this method, you’ll have to be aware of the number of bounces the ball will make from one pocket to the other and in which direction the bouncing will head. After that, you should figure out which number section it will strike, and then, place your wager on that section.
Similarly to when you follow the croupier’s trademark, the biggest threat here are those nightmarish bumpers. If the ball hits one of those, the game becomes random again.
Scientific Prediction Attempts
Now, the biggest dream of roulette players is a way to predict the outcome of the online version of the game. Wouldn’t it be great if you’d run the game, buy chips, and apply a specific prediction algorithm to win every time the wheel spins?
Two University professors from China and Australia, Dr. Ci Kong Tse and professor Michael Small, decided to put their knowledge and experience to use and create a formula that could help you do just that.
For their research, Dr.Tse, and professor Small provided a simple wheel model and a ball in order to show that the basic knowledge of velocity, initial position, and acceleration is enough to predict the results with acceptable certainty. Although it was a great idea, in practice, it was too complicated for the non-scientists. It involved some complex calculations which many of us would never be able to use.
The Pyton Code
Though the two mentioned professors didn’t entirely succeed in creating a winning formula, one member of “Cross Validated” did. This person dedicated to data mining, machine learning, data analysis, data visualization, and statistics, managed to create a precise prediction algorithm for roulette gameplay.
That formula was actually the python code, which seems flawless until you look at it closely. The code included only 36 numbers in its calculations. Yet, the single-zero wheel has 37 and double-zero one 38 numbers, meaning that the code didn’t account for the house edge.
The advantage of the house for the online game is 2.7% in the European and 5,3% in the American roulette games. And since the algorithm presumes you’re playing without the house edge, it isn’t a valid predictor.
For example, if you were to make bets on black, red, even, or odd using this code, you would get the assumption that, in the long term, your odds are 50%. Since 0 and 00 are excluded from this assumption, you would end up playing the same old random game.
The other reason this code doesn’t work in the long run is the fact it’s based on the Martingale strategy. It requires that you double your wager each time you lose. The code seemed to be suitable for roulette in online casinos. However, it isn’t recommendable to use it.
Is There a Prediction System for Roulette Online?
Now, after learning about some failed scientific attempts and ways your perception can serve you during the game, you must be wondering — is there any simple solution for your desired predictions? Well, not quite.
Know the House Edge
However, there are some gaming aspects in roulette that can help you get closer to that. First, you will need to know the house edge for the wheel you’re playing. If you choose a double-zero one (American roulette), the house will have the edge of 5,3%. Alternately, the house advantages for the single-zero wheel (European) is 2,7%. That is due to an additional pocket on the double-zero wheel. The European roulette has a lower house edge because of its 37 pockets, so it is a bit easier to predict than with the 38 numbers American roulette holds.
Know the Types of Bets and Their Odds
Knowing the type of bets means the world when you first start playing the roulette. No matter the wheel, they are categorized into two groups — inside and outside bets.
Inside bets are those that help you win big but have small odds of winning. Some of these are the straight-up bet — when you bet on a single number — and the split bet — when you place your wager on the neighboring numbers.
With outside bets, you have higher chances of winning, yet the payout is lower. These are all wagers you make on a color, a large group of numbers, or one of the three columns. Since outside bets cover larger areas of the wheel, their odds are higher.
Learn Some Betting Systems
Before you approach the wheel, learning about some of the many betting strategies out there is an excellent idea. There are several systems you should be aware of. Some of them are negative progression systems, which means they expect you to increase your wager each time you lose. Others have a positive progression, meaning that you increase your bet every time you win.
However, the most popular strategy is Martingale. Applying this method means that you double your bet every time it is unsuccessful. It is a negative progression system and a big risk.
There is also the Reverse Martingale, where you double your wager when you win. And just like the regular Martingale, you can either win big or lose big.
You can also try out the D’Alembert system — make your bet the same amount as the initial each time you win. When you lose, double it. Or you can do the exact opposite with the Reverse D’Alembert. Each time you lose, make your bet the same as the initial one and double it each time you lose.
One of the most scientific strategies is Fibonacci. It is a system that has a mathematical formula as the base. Here, you start your bet with the first element in the Fibonacci sequence, and if you lose, you proceed to bet the second number in the sequence. You go on like that until you win — then, you go back two numbers in the sequence. It’s simple; well, at least as long as you can memorize the sequence itself.
And finally, one more betting method you should consider is Paroli. Here, you’ll place a small bet, and if you fail, keep betting on the same amount. If you win, double your stake. And if you score three consecutive wins, go back to the initial amount.
A Bit of Knowledge in Physics Can Come in Handy — Not Online Though
We have already mentioned physics a few times, and for a good reason. Basic knowledge in this science can significantly change your odds at the wheel. Though it might seem like nonsense, it has been proven that roulette doesn’t have to be entirely random. Of course, this works in real casinos only. In an online game, the best thing you can do is rely on good fortune.
Considering all that was written, you might be a little confused. Is there a way to predict those numbers? The answer is, “Yes, but not precisely.” Choosing a certain type of bet, you could cover a particular area of the wheel, and it could give you more control of the outcome. Unfortunately, that is as far as you can go with online roulette.